With the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching later this week, Geoffrey Miller from the Democracy Project told Rachel Smalley it doesn't look like the conflict will come to an end any time soon.
"I don't think an end to the war is in any way imminent," Miller said.
"Both sides are very much digging their heels in."
Russia is sending in tens of thousands of new, mobilised troops for their new spring offensive while a number of Western nations have shown their support for Ukraine sending tanks, personnel and more to support the war-torn nation.
Miller said Ukraine likely has the rest of this year to continue to defend itself and fight back against Russian attacks, but come 2024, may need to consider some form of negotiation.
"If by the end of the year, we are still in this sort of 'stale-mate' position then I think NATO countries will be telling Ukraine that perhaps time is up and the time is right to go for a negotiated solution."
The death toll from the recent earthquake in Syria and Turkey has surpassed 40,000, with many expecting that number to continue to rise substantially.
Turkey is set to hold their next Presidential election no later than June 2023 and the current President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has led the country for 20 years is under added pressure with what Miller described as one of the worst natural disasters this century.
"There is a lot of anger towards his Government.
"It will be interested to see what Erdoğan does because like a lot of strong men, he has gotten used to power.
"I think there will be a temptation on his part to try and delay the elections… it could be a very unstable year in Turkey, not just in terms of the land shaking."
Listen to the full interview between Geoffrey Miller and Rachel Smalley above.
You can also download the full interview on the First Light podcast, and listen on the go. Download the rova app on apple or android to listen to this podcast on the go, or anywhere else you get your podcasts.
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