OPINION: I've been trying to get my head around the staggering new military deal announced today in San Diego.
It's not just the money the Aussies are spending, but it's the geopolitical impact it will have on the whole Asia-Pacific region.
Why are they doing it? Is it to counter China? Is it so the US can exert more influence in the region? Is it for reasons only the spies and military intelligence know?
In terms of coin, it's eye-watering. Australia is spending NZ$400 billion over three decades to upgrade and expand its ageing fleet of six submarines which are 23 years old.
That money will go towards shipyard expansions, new facilities, construction yards, docks, maintenance, and all the other things you need to run and look after a fleet of nuclear-powered underwater vessels.
The deal with the US and the UK is the biggest military technology investment since the dire days of the Cold War. And that says something given the vast weapons and military expansionism that happened during that time.
This deal is one of the first times the US has ever sold its nuclear-power technology to another country. That goes to show just how seriously the US wants to solidify its position in the Pacific. This is the highly classified technology they're sharing with the Australians.
Australia will get three US-built Virginia-class submarines, with an option for a further two. This sub is a pretty versatile nuclear attack vessel with an unlimited range due to its nuclear reactor. The US has 21 of them in active service and another 22 on the order book.
Then there's the British. They want in too. Ever since Brexit, they've said they want to pivot to the Commonwealth. Australia and the Pacific is a big part of this pivoting.
The UK will share its designs for a new submarine it's designing to replace its own Trident-capable Astute-class subs. Eight of these will be built in Adelaide, but there's an option they may take further subs made in Britain. Like the US subs, they are nuclear attack submarines, although the Australian ones won't carry nuclear weapons.
The deal also means the US and UK will station their own submarines in Western Australia. The US will rotate four subs and the UK will have one.
Will they rotate through the east coast of Australia? Not definitely but it's possible.
The deal will have China worried. China's been undergoing its own rapid military expansion in the last decade. They're building aircraft carriers, stealth aircraft, naval vessels, and boosting personnel numbers.
China's been expanding into the Pacific, not with hard power but with soft power. It means loans and deals and gifts and new infrastructure for small countries in the Pacific.
Now the US and UK are back in the region with a relatively significant footprint, China will be up in arms.
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