Opinion: It is intriguing watching the two Chris’s at the moment.
Hipkins is pulling Labour more to the right. Luxon is taking some of the territory off the left.
And if you’re a swing voter, if you’re politically homeless and you’re not sure which way you’ll vote, it probably feels like you’re courtside at the tennis and you’re watching two equally-matched opponents slugging it out. Back and forth, back and forth.
Since the New Year, Luxon has needed to pull a rabbit out of the hat. National lost control of the narrative after Jacinda Ardern resigned, Chris Hipkins stepped up, and the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle swept through our infrastructure. And the lens remained fully on Labour throughout that time.
As macabre as it may sound, the horror of Cyclone Gabrielle works in Labour’s favour. If there is a national disaster or tragedy, it typically favours the party that is already in Government. The Christchurch earthquakes favoured National. So did the GFC in the later years.
It is much easier to govern a country through a crisis than it is to create policy, engage the public, defend your party’s failures, and win new voters. You need to pull on a high vis, get out into the community, and provide relief and support. Hipkins has got the bit between his teeth, and he’s running with it. Gabrielle has allowed him to look less Boy Scout, and more Statesmanlike.
So, this is Luxon trying to wrestle some of the narrative back. He's pulled the carpet out from underneath Labour on childcare.
Luxon’s decision to provide a quarter of a billion dollars worth of tax rebates to parents for childcare and, even better, fund it by slashing the cost of government consultants is a clever move. He says $250m will be funded by cracking down on consultant spending. Take money off the bureaucrats, and give it to parents. It's politically a good move
The proof, of course, is in the pudding. It looks good on paper, and it’s a lot easier to make pronouncements in opposition but few, if any, would oppose what Luxon is suggesting. Except, perhaps, some within the bureaucracy in Wellington.
And, National is right to support parents and children. Labour has provided some childcare support too, but only for families who earn up to $109k. That excludes Middle New Zealand which is also where you'll find the swing voters.
Labour, to my mind, has not prioritised children throughout its last two terms.
The party’s record on child poverty, despite it being labelled a priority when Jacinda Ardern came into governing, is unchanged. There are soundbites about the number of children being lifted out of poverty, but the anecdotes don't match Labour's unsubstantiated data.
Our children were never considered in the COVID response – particularly those in the upper North Island who spent months and months in lockdown. And in the Auckland floods, the immediate response was to shut all schools for a week. That wasn't the Government's decision, but it did reveal how easy ministries will look to lockdown these days.
It was only after significant pressure that schools were allowed to make that decision themselves, and rightly so.
So, it’s a good move by Luxon to step in and provide targeted support for families with childcare. That relieves some pressure on the wallet, it enables both parents back into the workplace should they choose and that’s important given the labour crisis we have, and it helps those who need it.
Far better, in a climate crisis, than to roll out cheap petrol for everyone. Peter and Louise don’t need cheap petrol for the Range Rover so they can tow the boat to the bach this weekend, but Josh and Kate could do with some help with the under-5s.
They’re targeting middle New Zealand while Labour grapples with the sacking of senior public servants. National 1. Labour 0.
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