Opinion: National would be mad to think it can pull off an NZ MAGA trick - that horrid Kiwi-isation of that horrid American term. Make Ardern Go Away.
That it could get rid of its unpopular leader - like Ardern was to Labour - and turn itself around in the polls - like Ardern’s ‘going away’ did for Labour.
Anyone in National doing the maths right now, those in the more marginal seats, or candidates outside of parliament in seats lost in last election’s red tide who were hoping to get in this year, or MPs who don’t like Luxon or who think they could do a better job than him - even if they’re all right to an extent, they need to calm those itchy trigger fingers.
If National is to have any hope at the next election they need to rally like hell behind their boy.
They may be going off Luxon, he may not be winning over voters, and his policies may not be getting traction but they made their bed and now they need to dig in and try to help him turn round the torpor.
As the year wears on and if the bad polls worsen for the Nats and Luxon, the already very audible agitation arguing for a Nicola Willis/Chris Bishop coup mach 2 will grow in volume.
But as hungry as Willis and Bish are, as certain as they are that they have always been the ones preordained to rule the party in government, they need to actually learn from the mistakes of the past.
Coup me once shame on me, coup me twice shame on you.
They will not survive as a future leadership ticket if they spill any more blood.
Their exoneration from the Simon Bridges/Todd Muller coup isn’t complete. Many in the caucus and wider party still harbour a grudge for the damage Muller’s 53 days in power did for the party and instead of Muller, who evokes pity rather than antipathy, it’s Willis and Bishop who are blamed for the disaster.
That’s not necessarily to say Luxon’s the right person for the job but rolling him now, or even a gracious resignation like Ardern’s, will not be the same for National as it’s been for Labour for a few reasons beyond the scepticism of the two behind the coup.
First, National has been the party of instability for the last six years. Don’t remind people of that. There’s no way they’ll vote for a party in disarray. 2020 showed us that already.
Second, Nicola Willis - she’s great but I’ve yet to see that x-factor - that thing that John Key revived National with, that Jacinda Ardern supercharged Labour with.
You might argue the same could be said of Hipkins and you might be right but he had an ace up his sleeve - this kamikaze destruction of all Labour’s unpopular policies. Establishing a mega reset.
National can’t do that. It’s barely announced anything. It’s got no trump card. Luxon’s it. Stability and consistency is the party’s best shot right now - whether they like it or not.
